New poll shows possible defeat for Theresa May

Theresa May will today attempt to relaunch the Tory election campaign amid fears Labour could be about to take the lead in opinion polls

Theresa May will today attempt to relaunch the Tory election campaign amid fears Labour could be about to take the lead in opinion polls

The May 19-23 poll showed the Conservatives with 48 percent share of those certain to vote in the June 8 election versus 47 percent in a May 15 poll.

Sterling has recovered after being hit by a projection suggesting the Conservatives could fail to win a majority in the general election.

Prime Minister Theresa May has said the "only poll that matters" is the one on June 8 while Labour's Angela Rayner dismissed the research, insisting Labour is "in it to win it".

In contrast to signs from a string of opinion polls that have suggested May's Conservatives will increase their majority, the new constituency-by-constituency modelling by YouGov showed it might lose 20 of the 330 seats it holds and the opposition Labour Party could gain almost 30 seats, The Times said. Opposition Labour polled 39 percent against the Conservatives' 42 percent. Brexit compelled Cameron to leave as he wanted to stay in EU.

The Conservatives would still be the biggest party, but would not have an overall majority.

That would raise questions about the future of Brexit, Britain's $2.5 trillion economy and British policy on a range of issues including corporate taxation and government spending and borrowing. It had nothing much to do with TV debates but rather the dramatic YouGov poll showing a Tory lead of just 4 per cent. Polling numbers are what really move the markets rather than the day-to-day campaign headlines.

Seven polls carried out since the May 22 Manchester attack have shown May's lead over the Labour Party narrowing. But his central estimate now is that they will win 379 seats, yielding a still-impressive majority of 116 (see chart).

A poll conducted by Survation for ITV's Good Morning Britain program showed May's lead had dropped to 6 percentage points from 9 points a week ago and 18 points two weeks ago.

YouGov chief executive Stephan Shakespeare said the data could change dramatically between now and June 8.

As per his campaign promise, Cameron held referendum in June 2016 to decide Britain's fate with European Union and people voted in favor of Brexit.

A YouGov analysis has suggested the United Kingdom faces a hung parliament.

However, YouGov stated: "Please note these voting intention figures are from YouGov's conventional polling, not our new election model". "The fundamentals - best party leader, best party on the economy, best party on Brexit - all still favor Theresa May".

But YouGov acknowledged that models could not produce estimates as accurate as a full-scale poll in each constituency.

However, the model - based on 50,000 interviews over one week - has a very wide margin of error, saying the Conservatives could get anywhere between 274 and 345 seats, meaning they could also increase their majority.

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