IMD forecasts 97% normal monsoon for 2018

Sashastra Seema Bal personnel on election duty sip tender coconuts to beat the heat at Majestic in Bengaluru on Saturday | Shriram B N

Sashastra Seema Bal personnel on election duty sip tender coconuts to beat the heat at Majestic in Bengaluru on Saturday | Shriram B N

IMD's forecast of 97% rainfall comes with a model error of (plus-minus) 5%.

Sunday's maximum temperature settled at 36 degrees Celsius, one notch above the season's average, while the minimum temperature was recorded at 20.5 degrees Celsius, normal for the season.

Rainfall is likely to be normal during the June-to-September south-west monsoon season, the government's weather office said on Monday.

A normal south-west monsoon bodes well for the Indian economy and is likely to boost rural demand and alleviate farm distress.

"India will receive normal monsoon this year".

However, the arrival of the monsoon and its distribution would play an important part so far as the economy was concerned, experts said. If the average rainfall is below 90 per cent of LPA, the Monsoon is termed "deficient".

A figure between 96 to 104 percent is considered normal monsson.

The monsoon is considered normal if the average rainfall is between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA.

The four-month monsoon season provides about 70 per cent of the country's annual rainfall.

Details, such as how the monsoon will pan out over the country and the quantum of rainfall in July and August - the key monsoon months - would be made available in the department's June update, said IMD chief K.J. Ramesh at a press conference in New Delhi.

The IMD's reasoning for the unexpected break is that it was caused by intra-seasonal variability as Pacific cyclones over Bay of Bengal pulled the monsoon currents towards them, leading to the disappearance of rains over Central and Northern India, plunging them on the brink of drought.

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